: Why is it so often “sooner than predicted”?

A June 15th headline elicited feelings in me of both shock and déjà vu: “ : permafrost now melting at levels not expected until 2090” [Independent, June 15, 2019]. Shock because that’s quite a bit ahead of time. Déjà vu because how often does a climate change headline or story use a phrase like that? “At levels not expected until” ...

@tuxom I think we hit one of those climate switches and the consequences of that particular one will now play out.

Lets just hope it isn't enough to knock over many dominos and the end point is still partly recoverable.

@tuxom climate change research tends to err on the more conservative side.

Yes. And they doing well to do so. Imagine climate scientists overestimate something .... hell will freeze and science deniers will start a global rant ...

@tuxom just stumbled over this German article: "Aufgrund der speziellen Arbeitsweise des IPCC, der Praxis der Verabschiedung der Berichte und der zurückhaltenden definierten Sprache untertreiben die Berichte des IPCC eher, als dass sie die Gefahren überbetonen."

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